Key findings
- 57% of HVAC companies in the study that claimed 24/7 service on their website did not list 24-hour hours on Google for all seven days (95% CI 50%-64%, n = 190).
- In the study, HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group replied on average to 66% of their recent Google reviews, compared with 24% for companies in the lowest review-volume group.
- In the study, the most-reviewed HVAC companies were more likely to mention financing (70% vs 25%), promote a maintenance plan (69% vs 43%) and advertise emergency service (75% vs 46%) than the least-reviewed — an association, not a recipe.
Why we looked: the promise is public, and so is the record
A heating and cooling company makes its promises in public: on its website, on its Google listing and in how it answers the reviews customers leave. Each of those is a public record that anyone can check before they call. We wanted to know how often the promises on a company's own website line up with the record the same company keeps on Google.
This is a study of public information, not an accusation. We did not call companies, we did not test response times, and no company is named. A website and a Google listing can disagree for ordinary reasons, such as office hours posted on Google while an emergency line is staffed around the clock. The findings describe what the public record shows, not what any company actually does at night.
Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Step 1 | frames: Google-listed HVAC companies with a website in 10 metro areas |
| Step 2 | 1,000 drawn (stratified by metro x review-volume group) |
| Step 3 | 500 Explore / 500 Confirm |
| Step 4 | responding websites (site nonresponse 23.1% weighted, Confirm) |
| Step 5 | per-test denominators (e.g. C1 n = 190) |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/methodology-sample-funnel/" title="How the 2027 HVAC study was built" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/methodology/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
The 24/7 promise vs. the Google record
57% of HVAC companies in the study that claimed 24/7 service on their website did not list 24-hour hours on Google for all seven days. Finding details
HVAC companies in the study whose website claimed 24/7 service; share whose Google listing did not show 24 hours on all seven days (n = 190; 95% CI 50%-64%).
Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 24/7 claim, no 24-hour Google hours | 57% |
| 95% confidence interval | 50%–64% |
| n | 190 |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/c1-247-google-hours/" title="57% of 24/7 claims in the study weren't backed by 24-hour Google hours" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/findings/24-7-claims-vs-google-hours/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
The result held up in the held-out half of the study and across the robustness checks we preregistered, including dropping one metro area at a time and excluding websites with very few pages.
The mismatch runs in both directions
In the study, 30% of HVAC company websites checked against their Google listing claimed 24/7 service while the listing did not show 24-hour hours; for 10%, the Google listing showed 24-hour hours but the website made no 24/7 claim. Finding details
Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Site 24/7, Google not | 30% |
| Google 24-hour, site not | 10% |
| n | 346 |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/c1s-mismatch-both-directions/" title="In the study, 30% of HVAC company websites claimed 24/7 service that their Google listing did not show (10% the reverse)" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/findings/24-7-mismatch-both-directions/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
Emergency claims, and how clearly the next step is explained
In the study, 75% of HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group advertised emergency service on their website, compared with 46% in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
In the study, 8% of HVAC companies that advertised emergency service clearly explained on their website what an urgent or after-hours customer should do, based on an AI-assisted review checked by two independent models. Finding details
The review-reply gap
In the study, HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group replied on average to 66% of their recent Google reviews, compared with 24% for companies in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
Average share of recent Google reviews with an owner reply, most-reviewed vs least-reviewed HVAC companies in the study (n = 259).
Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Owner reply rate (average) — Least-reviewed group | 24% |
| Owner reply rate (average) — Most-reviewed group | 66% |
| Owner reply rate (average) — difference, points (95% CI) | 41 (32–51) |
| Owner reply rate (average) — n | 259 |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/c4b-reply-gap/" title="The review-reply gap in the study: most-reviewed HVAC companies replied to 66% of reviews on average, least-reviewed 24%" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/findings/review-reply-gap/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
What else differs between the most- and least-reviewed companies
In the study, 70% of HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group mentioned financing on their website, compared with 25% in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
In the study, 69% of HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group promoted a maintenance plan on their website, compared with 43% in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
In the study, 60% of HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group made a guarantee or warranty claim on their website, compared with 35% in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
Share of websites, least-reviewed vs most-reviewed group in the study: financing 25% vs 70%, maintenance plan 43% vs 69%, guarantee or warranty claim 35% vs 60%, emergency service advertised 46% vs 75%.
Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Mentions financing — Least-reviewed group | 25% |
| Mentions financing — Most-reviewed group | 70% |
| Mentions financing — difference, points (95% CI) | 46 (34–56) |
| Mentions financing — n | 247 |
| Promotes a maintenance plan — Least-reviewed group | 43% |
| Promotes a maintenance plan — Most-reviewed group | 69% |
| Promotes a maintenance plan — difference, points (95% CI) | 27 (15–40) |
| Promotes a maintenance plan — n | 247 |
| Guarantee / warranty claim — Least-reviewed group | 35% |
| Guarantee / warranty claim — Most-reviewed group | 60% |
| Guarantee / warranty claim — difference, points (95% CI) | 25 (12–37) |
| Guarantee / warranty claim — n | 247 |
| Advertises emergency service — Least-reviewed group | 46% |
| Advertises emergency service — Most-reviewed group | 75% |
| Advertises emergency service — difference, points (95% CI) | 29 (17–41) |
| Advertises emergency service — n | 247 |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/c4-review-volume-dumbbell/" title="The most-reviewed HVAC companies in the study made more of these claims on their websites" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/findings/financing-by-review-volume/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
In the study, 66% of HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group showed some pricing on their website, compared with 46% in the lowest review-volume group. Finding details
Replies and review volume move together, mostly between groups
Among HVAC companies in the study with at least 5 retrieved Google reviews, companies with more reviews tended to reply to a larger share of them (rank correlation 0.38); this is an association, and it is much weaker within review-volume groups. Finding details
Rank correlation 0.38 across all companies in the study with at least 5 reviews; within review-volume groups the association is much weaker (-0.17, 0.14, 0.19). An association only.
Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| All companies (95% CI) | 0.38 (0.25–0.50) |
| Least-reviewed third | -0.17 |
| Middle third | 0.14 |
| Most-reviewed third | 0.19 |
| n | 345 |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/c6a-within-group-panel/" title="In the study, HVAC companies with more Google reviews tended to reply to a larger share of them" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/findings/replies-and-review-volume/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
In the study, the share of Google reviews an HVAC company replied to showed no clear association with its star rating (rank correlation 0.05, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.17); the interval is too wide to rule a relationship in or out. Finding details
What held up and what did not
We split the sample in half before looking at any results. The first half was used to explore; the second half was held back and used once, to test the preregistered hypotheses. One hypothesis did not hold up in the held-out half, and we report it in full on the methodology page rather than leaving it out.
Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| C1 — confirmed | Explore 0.561 · Confirm 0.571 (95% CI 0.496 to 0.637) |
| C2 — confirmed | Explore 0.083 · Confirm 0.084 (95% CI 0.041 to 0.130) |
| C3 — not confirmed | Explore 0.137 · Confirm 0.075 (95% CI -0.025 to 0.183) |
| C4a — confirmed | Explore 0.540 · Confirm 0.457 (95% CI 0.344 to 0.565) |
| C4b — confirmed | Explore 0.436 · Confirm 0.415 (95% CI 0.316 to 0.511) |
| C4c — confirmed | Explore 0.356 · Confirm 0.200 (95% CI 0.072 to 0.321) |
| C4d — confirmed | Explore 0.282 · Confirm 0.267 (95% CI 0.145 to 0.396) |
| C4e — confirmed | Explore 0.297 · Confirm 0.251 (95% CI 0.124 to 0.372) |
| C4f — confirmed | Explore 0.277 · Confirm 0.293 (95% CI 0.169 to 0.410) |
| C6a — confirmed | Explore 0.495 · Confirm 0.379 (95% CI 0.253 to 0.498) |
| C6b — descriptive only | Explore 0.186 · Confirm 0.051 (95% CI -0.069 to 0.167) |
<iframe src="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/embed/replication-explore-vs-confirm/" title="What held up: Explore estimate vs held-out Confirm estimate for every preregistered test" width="640" height="400" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe> <p>Source: <a href="https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/methodology/">AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report</a></p>
What this means
For homeowners: if you may need help at night, check both the company's website and its Google listing before an emergency, and call to confirm how after-hours calls are handled.
For company owners: your website, your Google listing and your replies to reviews are all part of the same public promise. Keeping them consistent is something you can check today. This study does not show that any particular change will bring more calls or reviews.
Methodology in brief
The study drew 1,000 HVAC companies with websites from Google listings in 10 large U.S. metro areas, stratified by metro area and by review-volume group, and split them into an Explore half and a Confirm half of 500 each. Every number in this report comes from the Confirm half, with design weights so that each metro area counts in proportion to its listings, and 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap.
Full methodology and every result
See how your company's public record compares
How to cite
Source line: Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report
AgencyFix Research. (2027). The 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report (study cxi-hvac-2027-1000, claim versions v1). https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/report/
Please cite the specific finding page when quoting a single number; numbers are design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half of the study.