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AgencyFix Research · HVAC · 2027 study

2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof: Study Findings & Data

A preregistered study of 1,000 HVAC companies with websites in 10 large U.S. metro areas, checked against their own Google listings and reviews.

1,000 companies10 metro areasPreregistered · held-out Confirm halfClaim versions v1
57%In the study, 57% of 24/7-claiming HVAC companies did not list 24-hour hours on Google.95% CI 50%–64% · n = 190Finding details →66% vs 24%In the study, the most-reviewed HVAC companies replied on average to 66% of recent Google reviews; the least-reviewed, 24%.n = 259Finding details →70% vs 25%In the study, 70% of the most-reviewed HVAC companies mentioned financing vs 25% of the least-reviewed.n = 247Finding details →

Key findings

  • 57% of HVAC companies in the study that claimed 24/7 service on their website did not list 24-hour hours on Google for all seven days (95% CI 50%-64%, n = 190).
  • In the study, HVAC companies in the highest review-volume group replied on average to 66% of their recent Google reviews, compared with 24% for companies in the lowest review-volume group.
  • In the study, the most-reviewed HVAC companies were more likely to mention financing (70% vs 25%), promote a maintenance plan (69% vs 43%) and advertise emergency service (75% vs 46%) than the least-reviewed — an association, not a recipe.
57% of 24/7 claims in the study weren't backed by 24-hour Google hours
HVAC companies in the study whose website claimed 24/7 service; share whose Google listing did not show 24 hours on all seven days (n = 190; 95% CI 50%-64%).
57% of 24/7 claims in the study weren't backed by 24-hour Google hoursSingle bar chart. Of HVAC companies in the study whose websites claimed 24/7 service (n = 190), 57% did not list 24-hour hours on Google for all seven days; the 95% confidence interval runs from 50% to 64%. A dashed reference line marks 50%.0%25%50%75%100% 24/7 claim, no24-hour Google hours 57%95% CI 50%–64% 50% n = 190

Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.

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The review-reply gap in the study: most-reviewed HVAC companies replied to 66% of reviews on average, least-reviewed 24%
Average share of recent Google reviews with an owner reply, most-reviewed vs least-reviewed HVAC companies in the study (n = 259).
The review-reply gap in the study: most-reviewed HVAC companies replied to 66% of reviews on average, least-reviewed 24%Two bars from the study: the most-reviewed HVAC companies replied on average to 66% of recent Google reviews; the least-reviewed replied on average to 24%.0%25%50%75%100%Least-reviewed group24% Most-reviewed group66% Difference 41 pts (95% CI 32–51) · n = 259

Design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half (500 companies) of a 1,000-company preregistered study in 10 U.S. metro areas, 2026 data. 95% confidence intervals from a stratified bootstrap. Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report.

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Read the study

The full report · Methodology and full results (including the result that did not hold up) · Data story: the 24/7 promise vs. Google hours · What high-review HVAC companies do differently

Every finding

Downloads

Aggregate results only (no company-level data): a CSV and a JSON file with every published estimate, its confidence interval, its denominator and its claim version.

hvac-2027-aggregates-v1.csv · hvac-2027-aggregates-v1.json

Data license: draft under legal review — no license is granted yet. Attribution is required for any use.

How to cite

Source line: Source: AgencyFix Research, 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report

AgencyFix Research. (2027). The 2027 HVAC Promise vs. Proof Report (study cxi-hvac-2027-1000, claim versions v1). https://agencyfix.com/data/hvac-2027/

Please cite the specific finding page when quoting a single number; numbers are design-weighted estimates from the Confirm half of the study.

· CSV · JSON

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